Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift

What do negative policy rate economies have in common?

Asger Munch Grønlund, Signe Krogstrup & Morten Spange

Nominal interest rates fell to record low levels globally in the decades prior to the pandemic. Five economies, Denmark, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Ja-pan, stand out by having adopted negative interest rate policies (NIRP). In this paper, we document that these economies have high levels of private and in most cases also public savings, not matched by investment, relative to other high-income non-NIRP OECD economies. We also show that high savings in NIRP economies are likely to be associated with prudent public finances and popula-tion ageing. The structure of pension systems might also play a role, although this is not clear cut. In the years following the financial crisis and leading up to the pandemic, NIRP economies experienced particularly subdued inflation compared to other advanced economies. This could reflect that equilibrium real interest rates are lower in NIRP economies due to higher savings, making the effective lower bound constraint on monetary policy rates more binding.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Christian Hjorth-Andersen – 28. november 1944 – 28. september 2023

Trine Bille & Niels Kærgård

Med Christian Hjorth-Andersens død i september 2023 mistede dansk økonomi en af sine mest markante personligheder; professor ved Københavns Universitet; dekan i en årrække for Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet ved dette universi-tet; formand for Nationaløkonomisk Forening og for Folkeuniversitetet i Køben-havn; redaktør af Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Økonomerne i Aarhus 1946-1980 – En replik til Niels Kærgård

Svend Hylleberg

Denne artikel er en replik til Niels Kærgårds kritik i artiklen »Økonomerne i Aarhus 1946-1980: En mere nuanceret historie« af min artikel »Produktivitetskrisen i den økonomiske videnskab på Aarhus Universitet fra 1946-1980, Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift vol. 2023, nr. 3, side 1 -21«.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Økonomerne i Aarhus 1946-1980 – En mere nuanceret historie

Niels Kærgård

Hylleberg (2023) is critical regarding the low productivity of the economists at Aarhus University in the period 1946 – 1980. He is clearly applying today's university ideals of "Publish or perish" to this historical period. This is not fair. The university professors of that time considered participation in the public debate, membership of commissions, teaching etc. as an equally important part of their work as scientific publication. If one compares scientific publications, the Aarhus economists are doing as well as their Copenhagen colleagues, but both groups are obviously doing badly if one compares the number of published scientific papers with today's researchers’ performance. This leads to a discussion of whether today's key focus on scientific publications is appropriate.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Fordelingseffekter af husleje-regulering: Målrettet som spredehagl

Jakob Langager

In this paper, I analyze whether tenants’ economic gain from rent reduction due to rent control is targeted low-income households. I investigate if households with low income have larger gains than high-income households, and if households with the same income have similar gains. To compute the gains, I estimate the counterfactual market rent for regulated units using a random forest model based on the rents in comparable unregulated units. I find that the average gain due to rent control is highest for high-income renting households, and that there are large differences in the gain for households with similar income. More than 95 percent of the total variation in the gains is caused by differences in the gains for households with similar income. Consequently, rent control is very imprecise and not targeted low-income households within the group of renters in the Danish population.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Job Retention during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Pernille Valentin Borgensgaard

Following the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic, countries worldwide adopted new or scaled up existing job retention schemes. This paper examines the labor market effects of the Danish wage compensation scheme for employees, which offered wage subsidies to private firms that furloughed workers instead of laying them off. Usi ng payroll records at the monthly frequency for Danish employeremployee matches, I estimate that the scheme prevented 11,165 exits from employment. How- ever, it also compensated workers that firms were not planning to lay off. It mainly prevented job losses for low-tenured workers, while high-tenured workers (8+ years) would, to a greater extent, have retaines their jobs even in the absence of the scheme. Further, the scheme led to a significant decline in furloughed workers’ labor income, which may reflect that firms negotiated wage cuts with their employees before applying for wage compensation. Finally, I find that labor market mobility was slightly reduced by the scheme.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2023)

Climate policy and the macro economy

Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen

This paper outlines three challenges related to effective climate change policy. Economists understand the theoretical solution - a Pigovian tax - but the reality is more complex. First, estimating the social cost of carbon is challenging because accurately identifying the links and parameters of integrated assessment models can be difficult. Second, multilateral coordination issues hinder the effectiveness of global climate policy. Climate change is a non-excludable global public good, which results in free-riding incentives and policy leakage. Third, intergeneratio-nal and distributional concerns complicate climate policy. Present costs and delayed benefits may lead to intergenerational redistribution, affecting current generations and political support.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2023)

Kære læsere af Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift

Jeg har med stor glæde overtaget opgaven som redaktør for Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift.
   Det er et tidsskrift med stolte traditioner, som første gang blev udgivet i 1873, hvilket gør det til et af de ældste tidsskrifter i verden. Der er derfor en lang historie af bygge videre på, men en ny redaktør er også en anledning til sammen med redaktionsudvalget at genoverveje, hvad den redaktionelle linje skal være fremover.
   Det har vi gjort, og vores ambition er, at NØT skal være et tidsskrift, der bliver læst af forskere såvel som nuværende og tidligere ansatte i centraladministrationen, tænketanke o.lign., samt alle andre med en interesse i økonomiske problemstillinger. NØT skal fokusere på dansk økonomi. Det er derfor helt centralt, at de artikler, der publiceres, skal bidrage med ny viden, der er relevant i forhold til problemstillinger indenfor dansk økonomi. Til gengæld skal NØT favne bredt i forhold til emner indenfor såvel mikroøkonomi, makroøkonomi, arbejdsmarkedsøkonomi, politisk økonomi mm.
   De artikler, der publiceres, skal i forhold til kvaliteten af analyserne leve op til den standard, der er »state of the art« indenfor forskning i økonomiske problemstillinger. Der kan publiceres artikler på såvel engelsk og dansk.
   Relevans kan i mange tilfælde hænge sammen med aktualitet. Det er derfor en klar ambition, at de artikler, der sendes til NØT, skal vurderes hurtigt, så tiden mellem udarbejdelse af forskning og publicering er så kort som muligt. Instruktionen til referees vil derfor også være, at de skal have fokus på kvaliteten af det foreliggende materiale, og der skal ikke være lange forløb, hvor artiklen eventuelt udvides med ekstra analyser, som også kunne være interessante. Mere konkret er ambitionen, at alle indsendte artikler i første runde enten bliver forkastet eller accepteret betinget af revisioner, der er nødvendige i forhold til at sikre den nødvendige kvalitet. Og der bør foreligge en beslutningen indenfor 3 måneder efter, at artiklen er modtaget af NØT.
   Et anerkendt tidsskrift er ikke kun afhængig af kvaliteten af de artikler, der publiceres, men også af den kvantitet, der ligger i, at læserne kan forvente, at der med jævne mellemrum kommer nye artikler. Det er derfor ambitionen, at der årligt publiceres ca. 10 artikler i Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift. For at opnå det mål kræver det, at forskere bakker op om tidsskriftet. Der skal derfor herfra lyde en stor opfordring til, at forskere på universiteter, i centraladministrationen, i tænketanke og andre steder, hvor der udarbejdes økonomisk forskning, støtter op om et stærkt dansk økonomisk fagtidsskrift ved at sende deres forskning med relevans for dansk økonomi til Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift.

Med venlig hilsen

Jan Rose Skaksen