Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift

Special Issue on the Green Transition and the Danish Economy

Guest Editors for this special issue: Thomas Bue Bjørner and Niels Lynggård Hansen

Environmental economics has in recent years become part of mainstream economics. This reflects the severe environmental and climate challenges at a global scale that have been building up over many decades. This has far-reaching consequences for societies in multiple ways. One consequence of this development is that, whereas academic articles on environmental economics were previously published mainly in specialized field journals, they are now frequently featured in leading general economics journals.

(Special Issue – 2025)

Monetary policy transmission in Denmark

Rasmus Bisgaard Larsen og Christoffer Jessen Weissert

We provide estimates of the transmission of monetary policy shocks from the European Central Bank to Denmark, utilizing high-frequency changes in asset prices during policy announcements that isolate pure monetary policy shocks. Contractionary monetary policy significantly reduces both activity and inflation in Denmark. We elaborate on the consumer price response by highlighting two additional findings: a contractionary monetary policy shock leads to i) a significant appreciation of the effective Danish krone rate caused by an appreciation of the euro and ii) a significant drop in tradeable goods prices but an insignificant decline in nontradeable goods prices.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2025)

Karakteristiske træk ved videnskabelige fremskridt: Keynes, Aarhus og København i 1930’erne

Niels Kærgård

Scientific progress has not followed a smooth, continuous process but has occasionally involved abrupt shifts and scientific revolutions. Such revolutions have been intensely discussed, especially with reference to Thomas S. Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. One such revolution in economics began with John Maynard Keynes’ General Theory from 1936, see for instance Lawrence Klein’s The Keynesian Revolution. In such a process, the temperament and personal contradictions of individuals did play a role. A scientific revolution is a mosaic with many very different pieces. This is illustrated in the article by the debates between economists at Aarhus University, Copenhagen Universities and the Copenhagen Business School in relation to introduction of Keynesianism and the theory of marketing in Denmark in the late 1930s.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2025)

Don’t Jump to Faulty Conclusions: Using the Synthetic Control Method to Evaluate the Effect of a Counterfactual Lockdown in Sweden

Jonas Herby

Several studies based on the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) link the many COVID-19 deaths in Sweden during the spring of 2020 to Sweden’s decision not to lock down. I show that the estimated effect of lockdown varies greatly between four hypothetical Swedens depending on the spread of COVID-19 in societies be-fore lockdown. This suggests that the effect of lockdowns found in earlier studies using Sweden as a control are likely to be (at least partially) driven by unob-served variables such as the spread of COVID-19 in societies before lockdown, and other misspecifications. Including a proxy for the spread of COVID-19 before lockdown does not improve the results. Suggesting that the very short data series on the spread of COVID-19 before lockdown limits the SCM ability to accurately estimate the effect of lockdowns.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2025)

Status fra redaktørerne – december 2024


Vi har i 2024 overtaget redaktøransvaret for Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift. Det skete i forbindelse med Nationaløkonomisk Forenings generalforsamling den 29. maj. Det er en vigtig opgave, som vi sætter en stor ære i at varetage.
   Vores erklærede mål har fra starten været at styrke publiceringsomfanget og tidsskriftets synlighed og derved stille det mere centralt i ikke mindst den del af den danske politisk-økonomiske debat, som hviler på et forskningsmæssigt fundament.
   Vi er kommet godt fra start. I 2024 nåede tidsskriftet 8 artikler – hvoraf tre dog blev udgivet, mens Jan Rose Skaksen var ved roret. Artiklerne i år har drejet sig om vigtige emner som klimaregulering af landbruget, arvingers arbejdsudbud, negative pengepolitiske renter, makropolitiske modeller i Danmark, anvendelsen af felteksperimenter i designet af miljøpolitik, Arne-pension og fordelingseffekter af huslejeregulering.
   Med 8 artikler blev 2024 tidsskriftets mest aktive år siden 2013. Det er dog stadig et godt stykke vej fra fordoms niveauer, hvor man i 2000-10 jævnligt så 15-20 nye årlige artikler. Men der er mere i pipelinen, og planen er at udgive et særnummer i starten af 2025. Det fortæller vi mere om lidt længere nede ad vejen. Vi har dog store forventninger, og hvis det bliver godt, forestiller vi os flere af den slags de kommende år.
   Vores første arbejdsopgaver har været at etablere en LinkedIn‐profil til tidsskriftet, skabe en struktur for arbejdet og snakke om fremtidige muligheder for tidsskriftet.
   I 2025 fortsætter vi arbejdet, og her vil vi optrappe indsatsen med aktivt at kontakte mulige bidragende institutioner, ministerier, styrelser, virksomheder og personer. Det ser vi frem til.


God jul og godt nytår.

Michael Svarer og Jesper Linaa

Hvad har Arne-pension betydet for tilbagetrækning og beskæftigelse?

Anders Munk Hansen & Anthon Elm

This paper investigates the causal effects of the introduction of the »early pension« scheme in Denmark in 2022, targeted at individuals with many years on the labor market. The analysis utilizes a difference‐in‐differences approach to yield causal estimates of the scheme’s effect on labor market status among eligible individuals. The results indicate a considerable substitution away from the »efterløn« scheme, with estimated declines in participation rate in »Efterløn« of 6-9 percentage points among those eligible for early pension. Surprisingly, results indicate no large effects on employment among the eligible, suggesting limited acceleration of retirement in the short term.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Arvingers arbejdsudbud

Morten Førrisdahl

In this paper, I analyze whether inheritances have a negative effect on the labor supply of inheritors using Danish registry data. The study investigates the impact of receiving an inheritance on inheritors’ wages, employment rates, and hours worked. The findings indicate significant effects: An individual who inherits an average amount (approximately 600,000 DKK) reduces labor supply by 1 percent altogether, equally divided between labor participation and hours worked. The study employs a difference‐in‐difference (DiD) methodology, enhanced by recent advances to address potential biases in the estimation process. This research contributes to the existing literature by providing updated evidence from Denmark, highlighting the implications of inheritance on the heirs’ labor supply.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Leveraging Field Experiments to Shape Environmental Policy

Christina Gravert

Deciding which environmental policies to implement is crucial for governments and essential for protecting our planet. Numerous policy questions from energy use, to meat consumption, to public transport usage require empirical answers. Ideally, policymakers would rely on causal evidence to design policies. However, in environmental policy this is rarely done. This paper advocates for policy experiments as a feasible and valuable approach to designing effective environmental policies exante. I address common objections to policy experiments, such as feasibility, lack of skills and possible objections of voters and show how they can be overcome. I use examples from my research to illustrate the potential of policy experiments in answering critical environmental questions and promoting evidence based policy making.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Klimaregulering af landbruget: afgift versus tilskud

Peter Birch Sørensen

Regeringens ekspertgruppe for en grøn skattereform fremlagde i februar 2024 to forskellige modeller for klimaregulering af drivhusgasudledningerne fra landbrugets planteavl. I den ene model lægges en afgift på al gødning udbragt på mark, men der gives et arealbaseret bundfradrag i afgiftsbetalingen. I den anden model gives et tilskud til reduceret gødningsanvendelse finansieret ved en reduktion af EU's hektarstøtte. I en simpel partiel ligevægtsmodel med givne priser kan de to reguleringsmetoder udformes, så de giver samme effekter på ressourceallokering, drivhusgasudledning og byrdefordeling mellem landbruget og staten. Artiklen viser imidlertid, at denne ækvivalens bryder sammen i en model, der tager hensyn til samspillet mellem markedet for planteprodukter og markedet for landbrugsjord.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Makroøkonomiske modeller i Danmark

Dorte Grinderslev og John Smidt

Artiklen beskriver indledningsvist, hvordan de store makroøkonomiske modeller siden midten af 1970’erne har understøttet tilrettelæggelsen af den økonomiske politik i Danmark. Modellerne har bidraget med konkrete beregninger, og de har mere generelt dannet ramme for en diskussion på et oplyst fagligt grundlag. De tre store modeller i Danmark er ADAM, SMEC og MAKRO. En sammenligning af modellernes egenskaber viser for det første, at MAKRO reagerer hurtigst på stød, og det er også den model, der hurtigst finder en ligevægt efter et stød. For det andet viser sammenligningen, at effekten på det danske løn‐ og prisniveau ved stød især til udbudssiden er klart mindre i MAKRO end i ADAM og SMEC. Der peges på tre årsager til disse forskelle: 1) en antagelse om fremadskuende forventninger i MAKRO indebærer, at permanente ændringer generelt slår hurtigere igennem på økonomien, 2) eksportpriselasticiteten i MAKRO er større end i SMEC og ADAM, og 3) en såkaldt skalaeffekt indebærer, at eksporten i MAKRO ændrer sig relativt meget ved udbudsstød, selvom løn‐ og prisniveauet ikke ændres så meget. Artiklen afsluttes med nogle argumenter for, at det i forhold til uafhængig rådgivning omkring den økonomiske politik er værdifuldt at have en model som SMEC.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

What do negative policy rate economies have in common?

Asger Munch Grønlund, Signe Krogstrup & Morten Spange

Nominal interest rates fell to record low levels globally in the decades prior to the pandemic. Five economies, Denmark, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Ja-pan, stand out by having adopted negative interest rate policies (NIRP). In this paper, we document that these economies have high levels of private and in most cases also public savings, not matched by investment, relative to other high-income non-NIRP OECD economies. We also show that high savings in NIRP economies are likely to be associated with prudent public finances and popula-tion ageing. The structure of pension systems might also play a role, although this is not clear cut. In the years following the financial crisis and leading up to the pandemic, NIRP economies experienced particularly subdued inflation compared to other advanced economies. This could reflect that equilibrium real interest rates are lower in NIRP economies due to higher savings, making the effective lower bound constraint on monetary policy rates more binding.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)

Christian Hjorth-Andersen – 28. november 1944 – 28. september 2023

Trine Bille & Niels Kærgård

Med Christian Hjorth-Andersens død i september 2023 mistede dansk økonomi en af sine mest markante personligheder; professor ved Københavns Universitet; dekan i en årrække for Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet ved dette universi-tet; formand for Nationaløkonomisk Forening og for Folkeuniversitetet i Køben-havn; redaktør af Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2024)